A Study on Emission Reduction Strategies for Freight Trucks in the Context of China’s Carbon Neutrality Objectives

Road freight contributes over half of China’s transport carbon emissions, making its decarbonization critical for carbon neutrality. This study combines total cost of ownership (TCO) and life cycle assessment (LCA) to analyze the economic efficiency and carbon emission effects of diesel, electric, and hydrogen fuel cell trucks. Combined with the LSTM neural network and vehicle ownership model, this study predicts the fleet emission reduction potential from 2020 to 2050. The results show that all new energy trucks can achieve TCO parity with diesel trucks before 2050, and electrification shows better economic competitiveness than hydrogen fuel cell technology across all vehicle types in the Chinese context. Fuel cell trucks powered via solar-powered water electrolysis exhibit the lowest carbon intensity, and grid decarbonization can significantly improve the emission reduction effects of electric and fuel cell trucks. Freight fleet carbon emissions are expected to peak around 2030. In an ideal scenario, emission reductions of 19.5%, 41.9%, and 82.9% can be achieved by 2030, 2040, and 2050, respectively. Heavy-duty trucks are the main emission contributors (47–58%) and the main target of emission reduction strategies. Short-term reduction depends on fuel economy, while long-term reduction prioritizes new energy substitution. Policy recommendations include promoting alternative fuel trucks, upgrading emission standards, and adopting differential taxation.