Predicting Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Agriculture: Production Dynamics, Labor Productivity, and Implications for Climate-Neutral Farming Systems

This study explicitly assesses how crop and livestock production, along with real labor productivity, affect greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture across the European Union (EU), considering both per capita and total emissions. Using annual Eurostat data for EU Member States from 2008 to 2024, the research applies multiple regression models and a multivariate General Linear Model (GLM) to evaluate structural relationships, complemented by Holt exponential smoothing and ARIMA models to analyze temporal dynamics and generate forecasts. The empirical results indicate that crop and livestock production have a statistically significant positive effect on emissions, while real labor productivity has a significant negative impact. The models explain over 92% of the variation in total emissions and over 95% of the variation in per capita emissions, confirming strong explanatory power. Forecasts show continued growth in agricultural output but a declining trend in per capita emissions, primarily driven by productivity improvements. These findings demonstrate that improvements in labor efficiency and technological progress can partially offset the environmental pressures associated with increased agricultural production. The study concludes that achieving climate-neutral agriculture in the EU is feasible through sustained productivity gains and innovation-driven transformation.