Spatial–Temporal Evapotranspiration Dynamics in the Al-Ahsa Oasis Based on a Remote Sensing Approach for Sustainable Water Management

Accurate evapotranspiration (ET) estimation is critical for sustainable water management in arid environments. This study estimates actual ET over the Al-Hofuf region, Al-Ahsa Oasis, Saudi Arabia, during 2024 using a cloud-based remote sensing approach. Landsat 9 Level-2 imagery was combined with ERA5-Land meteorological data to quantify spatial and temporal ET variations across a 25 km buffer. Vegetation dynamics were characterized using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to derive crop coefficients (Kc) within a Kc–ET0 framework, where reference ET (ET0) was obtained from ERA5-Land potential evaporation. All processing utilized Python (Version 3.14) on Google Colab and Google Earth Engine for scalable computation. Eighty-eight cloud-free Landsat 9 scenes were processed following cloud and shadow masking. Mean NDVI, Kc, and daily ET values were compiled into a comprehensive time-series dataset. Model performance was evaluated through cross-validation with MODIS MOD16A2 and internal consistency checks, demonstrating strong statistical agreement (R2 = 0.82, NSE = 0.71, PBIAS = +8.3%). Results revealed pronounced seasonal variability closely linked to vegetation activity and atmospheric demand, with peak ET occurring during summer months (June–July: 7.2–7.5 mm day−1) and minima in winter (January–February: 2.0–2.6 mm day−1). Findings demonstrate that cloud-based techniques provide reliable, cost-effective ET monitoring in data-scarce, groundwater-dependent regions. Validation confirms Kc-ET0 estimates reliably capture spatial and temporal patterns, supporting practical irrigation management applications. This approach aids precision irrigation and long-term water sustainability planning in Al-Hofuf, contributing significantly to national water conservation objectives under Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and National Water Strategy.