The Digital City Dividend: Modeling Residents’ Expected Financial Gains from Tech-Enabled Service Delivery

This study examines how tech-enabled municipal service delivery can generate a digital city dividend, measured as residents’ expected financial gains in urban context. The purpose is to identify the beliefs and enabling conditions that most strongly shape these expectations. We collected resident survey data and analysed the proposed model using PLS-SEM in SmartPLS. The reflective measurement model was evaluated for reliability and convergent validity (composite reliability; AVE) and for discriminant validity using both the Fornell–Larcker criterion and HTMT. We then tested the structural model through bootstrapping to assess the hypothesized paths. The results show that expected financial gains are driven primarily by behavioral intention, and are also supported directly by perceived value and trust. Behavioral intention rises mainly with trust and performance expectancy, while the effects of other adoption drivers are comparatively weaker. Service delivery quality contributes indirectly by strengthening perceived usefulness and trust, which subsequently improves intention and the expected dividend. The findings indicate that perceived financial benefits depend on a clear value pathway, credible institutional trust, and consistent service performance. The study therefore highlights practical priorities for cities: improve reliability and responsiveness, strengthen confidence through transparency and resolution mechanisms, and make the value-for-money case more legible to residents.