Europe in 2035: Four Scenarios and the Choices that Matter

Europe faces a convergence of crises: a crumbling international order, wars, democratic backsliding, economic stagnation, critical dependencies, and fracturing alliances. At the same time, the institutional architecture that underpinned its most prosperous decades is cracking. The scenarios presented in this policy brief suggest that Europe’s future remains highly volatile. By 2035, Europe could drift towards fragmentation, lose strategic agency, or even face political disintegration. Equally, it could emerge as a more capable, cohesive, and influential actor. Which path Europe takes will depend on the political choices made in the second half of the 2020s.