Mexico–China trade in the automotive sector and Trump's revised trade policy toward the USMCA

Purpose The Trump administration asserts that Mexico is becoming a pathway for Chinese exports into the US market. In this statement, the primary threat comes from low-priced Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), which may harm domestic manufacturers due to government subsidies and state support intervention. This study aims to analyze Chinese investment and sales in Mexico's automotive sector and to evaluate the current export pattern to the US market. Design/methodology/approach The document examines statistical data from 2018 to 2025 to analyze China's trade patterns and investment in the automotive industry in Mexico, market sales in Mexico and export trends to the US market, and assesses how these have influenced Trump's trade policy regarding the US–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA). Findings Evidence suggests that although sales of Chinese vehicles in Mexico are growing rapidly, investment in Mexico's automotive sector remains limited. Currently, there are no exports of Chinese vehicles from Mexico to the United States. Only one company assembles Chinese vehicles in Mexico using completely knocked down kits imported from China. Giant Motors Latin America has been manufacturing and selling JAC models (JAC Motors Company) in the Mexican market since 2006 and does not export vehicles to the United States. Additionally, USMCA regional value content and labor value content are important factors that restrict the export of Chinese vehicles and auto parts from Mexico. Originality/value The findings are valuable for academics, policymakers and companies interested in the automotive industry's performance in China and its presence in North America.