The Stellar Death Clock: Thermodynamic Constrains on Civilizational Survival

This work proposes a thermodynamically constrained framework for interpreting the Fermi Paradox. Rather than attributing the absence of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations solely to sociological or self-destructive Great Filters, the study explores the possibility that stellar evolution itself imposes a universal temporal constraint on civilizational longevity. Using the Earth-Sun system as a baseline, the paper develops a mathematical model of the Civilizational Survival Factor () to relate remaining habitability, energy availability, and complexity-driven maintenance costs. The framework treats civilizational growth as a constrained process in which increasing coordination, repair, information processing, and entropy management reduce the net free power available for long-term expansion. The argument is supported by complexity-collapse ideas from Tainter and by scaling results from Bettencourt and West, while remaining explicitly falsifiable and model-based. In parallel, classical interstellar exodus scenarios are evaluated against mass, propulsion, and thermal constraints, suggesting that such strategies face severe energetic penalties. As an alternative, controlled planetary orbital migration is considered a comparatively favorable mitigation pathway. The paper does not claim to resolve the Fermi Paradox definitively, but offers a theoretical baseline for future numerical, observational, and comparative studies of astroengineering feasibility.

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Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-30
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20302965
Primary Topic
Space Science and Extraterrestrial Life
Type
preprint
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The Stellar Death Clock: Thermodynamic Constrains on Civilizational Survival

Moisés Frutos Plaza
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Space Science and Extraterrestrial Life
preprint

The Stellar Death Clock: Thermodynamic Constrains on Civilizational Survival

Moisés Frutos Plaza
preprint en

Abstract

This work proposes a thermodynamically constrained framework for interpreting the Fermi Paradox. Rather than attributing the absence of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations solely to sociological or self-destructive Great Filters, the study explores the possibility that stellar evolution itself imposes a universal temporal constraint on civilizational longevity. Using the Earth-Sun system as a baseline, the paper develops a mathematical model of the Civilizational Survival Factor () to relate remaining habitability, energy availability, and complexity-driven maintenance costs. The framework treats civilizational growth as a constrained process in which increasing coordination, repair, information processing, and entropy management reduce the net free power available for long-term expansion. The argument is supported by complexity-collapse ideas from Tainter and by scaling results from Bettencourt and West, while remaining explicitly falsifiable and model-based. In parallel, classical interstellar exodus scenarios are evaluated against mass, propulsion, and thermal constraints, suggesting that such strategies face severe energetic penalties. As an alternative, controlled planetary orbital migration is considered a comparatively favorable mitigation pathway. The paper does not claim to resolve the Fermi Paradox definitively, but offers a theoretical baseline for future numerical, observational, and comparative studies of astroengineering feasibility.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Universidad de Murcia (ES)
Climate action
Space Science and Extraterrestrial Life
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