Climate and land use change potentially drives southern range contraction and latitudinal shift in Caucasian Lynx

Climate and land use change are reshaping species distributions globally, yet their combined effects remain underexplored, particularly for wide-ranging carnivores. Here, we assessed the joint impact of climate and land use change on the future distribution of the Caucasian lynx (Lynx lynx dinniki) across its entire range. Using a fine-tuned MaxEnt model, we projected habitat suitability to 2050 under two socio-economic scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), incorporating current and future climate and land cover data. Habitat patches were classified as breeding or stepping-stones based on size thresholds, and landscape metrics were used to evaluate structural changes. Our projections indicated substantial habitat loss (31-33%) and gain (14-34%), with the most severe losses expected in the southern range, particularly in the Zagros and southern Anatolian mountains. Center of gravity analysis suggested a northward shift in suitable habitats, partially compensating for southern declines. However, increased fragmentation and isolation were evident under all scenarios. These findings emphasize the urgency of conservation strategies that maintain connectivity, protect stepping-stone habitats, and support adaptive land use planning. Enhancing corridor networks and addressing conservation gaps, especially in emerging northern ranges, will be critical for ensuring the long-term viability of the Caucasian lynx in a rapidly changing landscape.