Low-carbon energy transition evaluation framework and development strategy for energy-intensive enterprises in China’s electric-carbon market

The potential of the low-carbon energy transition (LCET) of energy-intensive enterprises in the electricity-carbon market is crucial for China to achieve its climate goals on schedule. Despite the growing interest in LCET, existing studies lack a tailored and targeted evaluation framework for energy-intensive enterprises. To address this gap, this study constructs an LCET evaluation framework comprising five dimensions with 16 indicators. It innovatively incorporates the four core indicators of carbon emissions, energy efficiency, carbon market trading potential, green electricity market trading potential, and a bonus indicator for future transition planning. The analytic hierarchy process is employed to assign indicator weights, and secondary calculations are performed in combination with weight ratios from relevant literature to ensure methodological robustness. Ten representative industrial enterprises from Hubei Province were selected as research objects for the first batch of empirical analysis, demonstrating the framework’s applicability. The research results reveal that most enterprises still face significant transformation challenges, with substantial heterogeneities in the transition performance of enterprises across different enterprises. The study also identifies distinct transition pathways: some enterprises prioritize direct carbon reduction through technology upgrades, while others focus on market mechanisms. The proposed indicator system serves as a dynamic self-evaluation tool, enabling energy-intensive enterprises to track both their current status and future LCET potential. Furthermore, it provides data-driven insights to support policymakers in designing differentiated and targeted incentive policies.