Industry differences in occupational upward mobility from low-wage labour market entry

A low-wage occupation is a common entry point into the labour market, yet the trajectories that follow vary considerably. This study examines whether patterns of upward mobility from low-wage labour market entry differ across industries. Using Swedish full population register data, the analysis follows all individuals aged 18–25 who entered the labour market in 2003 in low wage occupations and traces their occupational trajectories over 18 years. Event history models are used to estimate the timing of transitions from low wage to higher wage occupations. The results indicate substantial and persistent differences across industries in both the pace and likelihood of upward mobility. Workers in manufacturing and construction tend to move into higher wage occupations more quickly and more often, whereas those in hospitality, cleaning, and personal services experience markedly slower transitions. In several of these service industries, workers remain in low wage occupations more than twice as long as comparable workers in manufacturing, and a sizeable share do not transition at all within the observation period. As these service industries expand their share of low wage jobs—and as women and immigrants remain disproportionately concentrated within them—these patterns raise concerns about social stratification. The findings highlight how industrial structures shape early career mobility and interact with broader labour market inequalities, underscoring the importance of industrial opportunity structures for understanding trajectories from low-wage work.