Trajectories of Treatment Disruption for Chronic Outpatient Medications for U.S. Veterans During Drug Shortages

ABSTRACT Introduction Although drug shortages for outpatient chronic conditions commonly occur, population‐level data on how they impact patients' ability to refill prescriptions is scarce. We sought to identify distinct patterns of refill adherence following drug shortages and patient‐ and prescription‐level factors associated with adherence trajectories reflecting potential shortage‐related treatment disruption. Methods We retrospectively analyzed panel data assembled from 2017 to 2020 Veterans Health Administration (VHA) electronic health record data. Patients were included if they were baseline users of medications subject to a shortage within VHA. Group‐based trajectory modeling was applied to users' monthly proportion of days covered (PDC) values from 6‐months before to 6‐months after the reported drug supply chain disruption. Patient demographics and medication characteristics were compared between identified trajectory groups using multivariable logistic regression. Results Among 1.5 million episodes of medication use (representing 1.3 million unique Veterans) for 29 medications in shortage in VHA, 6.3% were for female patients and the mean age was 66.4 ± 12.8 years. A 4‐group trajectory model had the best fit: High Adherence (69.2% of observations), Moderate Adherence (14.1%), Potential Shortage‐Related Disruption (8.5%), and Pre‐Shortage Disruption (8.3%). Drug characteristics (drug class, number of manufacturers) were more strongly associated than patient characteristics with having Potential Shortage‐Related Treatment Disruption vs. High Adherence. Conclusions We identified 4 trajectories of refill adherence for medications subject to VHA drug shortages, with 8.5% of users of affected drugs exhibiting a trajectory consistent with shortage‐related treatment disruption. Drug characteristics may modify whether drug shortages lead to treatment disruption in VHA.