ITU Tier 1+ #41: Demographics (K_demo)

Tier 1+ Pass-1.5 paper 41 of 45. ITU-derived demographics on fertility + mortality + migration + age + population. Notestein demographic transition + Lee-Carter 1992 + Korea TFR 0.72. Defines K_demo = -log ρ_demo as the operator-algebraic modular Hamiltonian on H_fertility ⊗ H_mortality ⊗ H_migration ⊗ H_age_structure ⊗ H_population. K_demo inherits from K_QG via the CLPW 2023 type II crossed-product specialised to this scale. Numerical results. Demographic transition TFR vs GDP/capita logistic 22 countries: asymptotes 6.0->1.3, midpoint GDP/cap $5141, sub-replacement (TFR<2.1) 15/22 (68%) countries. Lee-Carter Monte Carlo 1000 paths 2024-2050: Japan e0 84.1->87.9 [87.2-88.6 CI95], USA 77.5->79.1 [78.1-80.1 CI95]. Topics covered. Malthus 1798 + Quetelet + Verhulst 1838, Notestein 1945 4-stage demographic transition + Bongaarts 1978 proximate determinants, IHME Lancet 2020 peak 9.7B 2064, UN WPP 2024.7 peak 10.3B 2084, Korea TFR 0.72 (2023) + Q1 2024 0.65 + Japan 1.20 record + China 1.0 + India 2.0 + Nigeria 4.6 + Niger 6.6, India overtook China 2023.4 1.43B -> 1.45B end-2024 + China 1.41B -2M, Japan 29.1% over-65 + births 730K vs deaths 1.59M 2023, World Bank remittances $685B->$700B + 281M migrants + Ukraine 6.5M refugees + IDMC 26.4M climate displaced, Lee-Carter 1992 JASA + Li-Lee 2005 + Case-Deaton 2015, China One-Child 1979-2015 + Sen 1990 100M missing women + SRB 117->109/100, Africa 1.4B->2.5B 2050->3.9B 2100 + Nigeria 230M->540M 2100 + DRC 110M->200M + Ethiopia 130M->220M, COVID 7M official + 18-28M excess + India 4.7M + Russia 2.5M + USA 1.4M + US e0 drop -2.6yr, Acemoglu 2024 NBER AI 2-5% offset + Japan 631 robots/10K + Tesla Optimus 2025, US Census 2020 331M + LGBT+ Gallup 7.6% Gen Z 22%. 45-vertex polytope #41 top couplings: #6 Aging (0.95), #27 Microbiome (0.85), #28 Neuro (0.85), #7 Psych (0.85), #5 Cancer (0.85), #36 Edu (0.85). Ten falsifiable predictions: P_avg=0.67, S/M/W=3/5/2: Japan over-65 35% 2030 (0.85), China pop <1.0B 2080 (0.80), World pop peak 10.3B 2084 (0.65), Korea TFR 0.6 by 2026 (0.70), India working-age peak 2045 (0.70). Pass-2 roadmap: ~$1.6M: HMD+UN WPP+IHME analytics ($500K) + Lean Mathlib Notestein+Bongaarts+Lee-Carter ($200K) + aging society + migration policy + AI offset modeling ($900K). Copyright © 2026 Munehiro Terada / Roboken. Licensed under CC-BY-4.0.