The Impact of Agricultural Value Added and Energy Consumption on Economic Growth in Türkiye: An Empirical Analysis

Climate change, global warming, natural disasters, wars, and global crises, which threaten the world's food supply, have made the agricultural sector fragile and strategically important, especially over the last century. Accordingly, it has become even more crucial for countries to have a strong agricultural infrastructure to ensure food security, maintain social stability, and reduce external dependence. In developing countries, in particular, the agricultural sector plays a critical role through functions such as job creation, reducing income inequality, and contributing to economic growth. For the Türkiye economy, the agricultural sector has historically been one of the cornerstones of the economic structure, providing raw materials to the industrial sector, supporting rural development, creating employment, and generating exports and foreign exchange earnings. On the other hand, energy consumption has become an indispensable element of production processes today. This study examines the impact of agricultural value added, gross fixed capital investment, and energy consumption on economic growth in Türkiye during the period 1968–2023 using the Fourier Engle-Granger cointegration test, Fourier Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Fourier Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), and Fourier Canonical Cointegration Regression (CCR) methods. The results of the Fourier Engle-Granger cointegration test reveal a long-term relationship among the variables. The Fourier FMOLS, Fourier DOLS, and Fourier CCR estimation results indicate that agricultural value added, gross fixed capital investment, and energy consumption have positive and statistically significant effects on economic growth in both the short and long term.