The Wealth Effect on Resilience Building: Exploring the Interactions Between Disaster Loss and Adaptive Capacity in China

The ability to learn from past disasters is crucial for adaptation and disaster risk reduction, which is also fundamental to achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, empirical evidence on how disaster losses interact with adaptive capacity remains limited. Drawing on panel data from 31 provincial regions in mainland China during 2012-2022, the study constructed a disaster loss index integrating population, economy, and agriculture dimensions and applied a capital approach to assess adaptive capacity. The coupling coordination degree model, combined with the fixed effects model, was applied to examine their interrelationship. The results indicate that (1) the disaster loss showed an overall stable trend but spiked in certain years due to extreme events, while adaptive capacity remained underdeveloped yet exhibited gradual improvement; (2) significant regional variations existed in the two systems, where only the central region achieved marginal coordination, while the eastern and western regions displayed opposite patterns of incoordination; and (3) disaster loss was not always a negative factor, as a positive association with adaptive capacity was primarily observed in the economically developed eastern region, suggesting a regional-specific wealth effect. These findings enhance the understanding of the dynamic interactions between disaster loss and adaptive capacity, offering insights for strengthening disaster resilience and promoting sustainable, high-quality development.