Is the Venture Growth-Survival Relationship Inverted U-Shaped or Not? A Replication and Extension

This study revisits the assumption that moderate growth offers the most reliable path to new venture survival. Adopting a lifetime growth perspective, we distinguish genuine failure from strategic or neutral exits to better understand the growth–survival relationship. Using 246,831 venture-year observations from 52,277 Dutch startups (2007–2019), we replicate and extend prior research. While moderate annualized growth enhances short-term survival, our extension reveals a contrasting long-term pattern: ventures with either low or high lifetime growth exhibit the greatest survival likelihood. These findings reconcile competing perspectives and highlight how ventures need to navigate short- and long-term pressures to survive.