How Does Whole Agricultural Industry Chain Development Impact Farmers’ Income? Evidence from China

In developing countries, promoting sustainable income growth for farmers is a major priority. This study constructs an evaluation index system for the whole agricultural industry chain from the perspective of synergy among the innovation chain, supply chain, value chain, and capital chain. It also empirically tests the enabling mechanisms and spatial effects of the whole agricultural industry chain on farmers’ income. The entropy value method was used to measure the development level of the whole agricultural industry chain. Two-way fixed effects, mediation effects, and spatial Durbin models were applied to investigate the impacts, mechanisms, and spatial characteristics of the whole agricultural industry chain on farmers’ income. The whole agricultural industry chain significantly promotes farmers’ income growth, with the expansion of the non-agricultural employment scale and the improvement of urbanization levels serving as the main pathways through which the whole agricultural industry chain drives increases in farmers’ income. The heterogeneity analysis reveals that the innovation chain and capital chain contribute the most prominent marginal effects; the effect intensity of the whole agricultural industry chain on farmers’ income presents a spatial gradient pattern of “Central > Western > Eastern”; and its income-increasing effect is more noticeable for middle- and low-income farmers, demonstrating significant pro-poor characteristics. Further analysis indicates that the whole agricultural industry chain exerts a significant positive spatial spillover effect on farmers’ income. Therefore, it is essential to optimize the layout of the whole agricultural industry chain, smooth the transmission channels of non-agricultural employment and urbanization, and enhance the benefit linkage mechanism targeting middle- and low-income farmers.