Comparative Study of Ammonia and Methanol: Prospects for China's Energy Transition

ABSTRACT This work compares ammonia and methanol to be used as energy carriers to decarbonize China, combining techno‐economic modelling with lifecycle evaluation and stakeholder analysis. Monte Carlo analysis (10,000 iterations) and TIMES‐China were used to project green ammonia costs to become US$ 350–500/ t by 2035 (plant‐gate, 2023 US$) when using adapted H 2 A and GREET models with China‐specific parameters, assuming electrolyzer costs below US$ 400/kW and renewable electricity prices below US$ 0.035/kWh. It is estimated that e‐methanol will reduce US$ 800–1200/ t to US$ 450–700/ t . The break‐even point is a carbon price of US$ 28/ t CO 2 e. The lifecycle emissions of green ammonia (with 1% to 3% leakage of NH 3 ) and e‐methanol vary between −0.2 to 0.5 kg CO 2 e/kg NH 3 and −1.2 to 2.0 kg CO 2 e/kg CH 3 OH, respectively. The regions of Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang are found to be the most suitable places to produce ammonia, whereas the coastal centres are more appropriate to integrate methanol. A total of 36 stakeholders interviewed indicate safety concerns (68%) and certification uncertainties (57%) to be major barriers. Policy modelling indicates that ammonia could supply 8%–12% of industrial energy and methanol 15%–20% of marine fuel by 2035 under accelerated policies. The research develops a holistic fuel ecosystem approach, which shows the complementarity, not competitiveness, of these carriers.