Regional inequality and driving factors behind low-carbon energy transition in China’s provinces

Abstract Accelerating the transition of China’s energy consumption structure toward low-carbon development is essential for achieving global carbon neutrality goals. As the country with the world’s largest share of energy-related emissions, China provides a critical case in which substantial provincial disparities remain. Using panel data from 30 provinces from 2012 to 2022, this study develops an integrated framework combining Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to examine the driving mechanisms of low-carbon energy transition from a regional inequality perspective. The results reveal persistent east–west disparities, significant spatial clustering, and clear temporal shifts in the effects of key drivers. Results reveal pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Green technology innovation consistently showed the strongest positive effect, while industrialization and urban–rural income gaps exerted stronger negative impacts in central and western regions. Government intervention shifted from a negative factor in early years to a positive driver in later years, which reflects the evolving role of policy in steering decarbonization. Moreover, nonlinear threshold effects were identified, such as U-shaped impacts of government intervention and scale-sensitive effects of afforestation. Findings show that China’s low-carbon transition is evolving from regional heterogeneity toward policy convergence, yet inequalities remain significant. These results underscore the need for targeted strategies for reducing disparities, including technology diffusion and financial support in less-developed provinces, to ensure a more balanced and equitable energy transition. This study contributes new empirical insights to understanding low-carbon drivers and designing decarbonization policies for ensuring an equitable and coordinated national transition.