Asymmetric tail risk spillovers in feed-swine value chains: a time-frequency network approach

Abstract This paper investigates the recurrent phenomena of “price decoupling” and “risk resonance” in China’s feed–hog supply chain under extreme events and policy shocks. Moving beyond the static frameworks prevalent in existing studies, we integrate multi‑timescale analysis with advanced extreme‑risk identification methods to uncover the nonlinear mechanisms of price transmission and risk spillovers along the chain. Empirical results reveal pronounced cyclical heterogeneity in price dynamics: the hog‑to‑feed price ratio serves as the pivotal nexus—feed‑cost shocks primarily drive short‑run fluctuations, capacity corrections constrain medium‑run adjustments, and global grain prices and macroeconomic fundamentals shape long‑run trends. Tail risk propagates asymmetrically, with spillovers from feed to hog intensifying more rapidly and strongly during market downturns and crisis periods. Moreover, Chinese policy uncertainty and international grain‑price volatility interact through the hog‑to‑feed ratio, amplifying cross‑market tail‑risk resonance during events such as the African Swine Fever outbreak. These findings provide important theoretical insights and actionable implications for understanding price decoupling and for designing stage‑specific regulatory and scenario‑based emergency risk‑management policies.