Research on the Impact of Rural Digital Economy on Agricultural Total Factor Productivity: A Dual Perspective of Human Capital and Scale Operations

The advancement of the rural digital economy (RDE) has created new opportunities to alleviate resource and environmental constraints in agriculture and to accelerate the green transformation of agricultural production. However, the existing literature provides limited analysis of the underlying mechanisms and insufficient identification of the multidimensional pathways through which the RDE promotes agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP). Using provincial panel data from 2013 to 2022, this study measures the level of the RDE with the entropy method and calculates AGTFP using the SBM-GML model. It further employs a two-way fixed effects model, a mediation model, and a threshold model to examine the specific mechanisms through which the RDE affects AGTFP. The results show that a 1% increase in the RDE is associated with a 3.7% increase in AGTFP, with significant positive effects on its decomposed indices. These findings remain robust after a series of robustness and endogeneity tests. Further analysis indicates that the RDE enhances AGTFP through improvements in rural human capital and agricultural-scale operations, with a significant threshold effect demonstrating increasing marginal returns beyond the threshold. The mediating effects are more pronounced in major grain-producing regions. Policy implications emphasize integrating the RDE with green agricultural production, promoting digital talent development and moderate-scale operations, and reducing regional disparities. These findings provide empirical evidence for fully leveraging the dividends of the RDE and advancing agricultural modernization.