Trade-Driven Environmental and Socioeconomic Impacts and Regional Disparities: Evidence from China’s Provincial Scale with Its Neighbors

The impact of trade activities on the balance between interregional environmental and socio-economic development is critical for sustainable regional cooperation. This study integrates a nested multiregional input-output (MRIO) model with an atmospheric chemical transport model (WRF-CAMx) to quantify the complex impacts of embodied emission transfers on PM2.5 concentrations under significant interregional differences in energy consumption and emission intensity, enabling a regionally development status-aligned assessment of environmental benefits; furthermore, by coupling environmental (PM2.5 concentration), social (employment opportunity), and economic (value-added) benefits, a regional multidimensional balance index (RESI) was constructed. Results indicate that in 2017, trade between China and its 33 neighboring countries was generally balanced (RESI values close to zero), suggesting relatively equitable exchanges of environmental and socio-economic impacts. The path of China’s sustainable development has played a positive role in promoting mutually beneficial and win-win regional cooperation. At the provincial level, developed coastal regions gained economic benefits while outsourcing pollution, whereas less-developed inland regions bore environmental burdens without receiving corresponding socio-economic returns. Incorporating PM2.5 concentration and employment factors alters inequality assessments for some regions, providing a more realistic evaluation. This study provides a scientific basis for improving cross-regional environmental compensation and promoting more balanced and sustainable development.