From blur to blueprint: a fuzzy delphi methodology for evaluating early-stage emerging technologies—the case of end-of-life automotive traction battery disassembly

Abstract Recycling end-of-life automotive traction batteries is paramount in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and mitigating supply chain dependencies associated with critical raw materials utilized in producing electric vehicle batteries. Deploying disassembly technologies represents a crucial step in the pretreatment process, enhancing the recycling process’s sustainability and profitability. This study evaluates disassembly technologies based on a multi-stage expert-driven research approach. We present a systematic stakeholder identification and analysis for the disassembly process step, resulting in the 14 relevant stakeholders. 65 expert interviews were then conducted with the relevant stakeholders and yielded a corpus of 16 evaluation criteria. Each criterion underwent a delphi evaluation process with 13 experts to ascertain its relative importance. Ultimately, another delphi panel was utilized to evaluate each disassembly technology conjunction with all identified criteria. To address potential uncertainties, the fuzzy delphi method was employed, resulting in two rounds until a consensus was achieved. Laser cutting and shredding emerged as particularly promising technological approaches, recommended for consideration by industrial stakeholders in the expansion of their facilities and by policymakers in the formulation of their regulatory environment. The developed methodological approach aims to systematically evaluate early-stage emerging technologies and has been validated by the given use case.