Quantitative Analysis of NDVI Temporal Data Using Artificial Neural Networks: A Decision-Making Approach for Precision Agriculture

The integration of quantitative mathematical methods and artificial intelligence into agricultural monitoring systems represents a critical pathway toward data-driven decision-making in the contemporary precision agriculture economy. This study applies mathematical modeling and quantitative analysis to temporal NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) raster datasets from six agricultural parcels in the Dobrogea region of Romania (2017 growing season), with the objective of supporting agronomic performance evaluation and operational decision-making. Higher-order statistical descriptors—variance, kurtosis, and skewness—were extracted from XML raster files and subjected to comprehensive visual analytics using kernel density estimation, three-dimensional surface modeling, and polynomial regression in Python. A feedforward Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with a 4-15-9-3-1 architecture was trained under four activation function and solver combinations (tanh/ReLU × Adam/SGD) to classify satellite sensing-date authenticity (is_sensing_date), a key data-quality indicator for operational crop monitoring workflows. Permutation-based feature importance analysis confirmed that variance is the dominant mathematical predictor (~35.8%), followed by kurtosis (~31.5%) and skewness (~26.6%), while the temporal month variable contributed least (~6.1%). The tanh–SGD configuration yielded the best training–test error balance for most individual datasets, while tanh–Adam performed optimally on the combined dataset. The inverse mathematical relationship between variance and kurtosis, and the direct co-variation between kurtosis and skewness, were consistent across all parcels, demonstrating the universality of these quantitative patterns in agricultural remote sensing data. These findings establish a replicable mathematical modeling framework applicable to predictive analytics, risk assessment of data quality, and performance evaluation in agricultural decision-making systems, with direct relevance to digital transformation strategies in the agri-economy sector.