Analysis of the Global Tungsten Supply Chain Trade Network: Does Sino–US Trade Friction Affect Supply Chain Resilience?

Tungsten is a critical strategic resource whose supply chain has become increasingly exposed to external trade shocks, raising concerns about its resilience and sustainability. However, existing studies mainly focus on single products and lack a systematic analysis of multi-stage supply chain networks under trade shocks. Using trade data for 66 countries from 2012 to 2023 obtained from the UN Comtrade database, this study constructs a multi-stage trade network of the global tungsten supply chain, covering upstream, midstream, and downstream segments, and combines complex network analysis with a difference-in-differences (DID) approach to examine whether and how Sino–US trade friction affects supply chain resilience. The results show that the trade network exhibits significant structural heterogeneity across segments, with downstream networks being more complex and interconnected; trade friction has no significant effect on upstream and midstream segments but has a significant positive effect on downstream network centrality, indicating stronger adaptability and structural resilience in downstream segments; the results further suggest that the observed downstream adjustment is mainly associated with changes in China’s network position, while the impact on the United States remains statistically insignificant. This study contributes to the literature by integrating network analysis with causal inference in a supply chain framework and provides new evidence on the heterogeneous effects of trade shocks across different stages of strategic resource supply chains under geopolitical risks.