‘Family policy change’ and the dependent variable problem: A systematic review of theories, conceptualisations, and measurements

The ‘dependent variable problem’ remains a persistent challenge in the analysis of welfare state change, for which family policy is a prime case: it combines heterogeneous policy instruments spanning cash benefits, time-related entitlements, and services, each consisting of multiple design elements and underlying logics, making analyses of policy change sensitive to conceptual and measurement choices. Moreover, over the past two decades, as family policies have been a major site of welfare state restructuring, investigating and explaining change has been one of the core themes in family policy research. In this article, we ask how studies have theorised, conceptualised, and operationalised family policy change – what is counted as change, which processes and dimensions are foregrounded, and how these are translated into empirical indicators. For this, we conducted a qualitative systematic review using the PRISMA method. A Web of Science keyword search identified 122 articles published between 2003 and 2023 that focus on family policy change. The review maps the empirical terrain of the field – policy areas examined, publishing venues, and geographical coverage. It documents that while many studies on family policy change articulate clear theories and concepts, fewer explicitly operationalise how change is measured or traced empirically. There also seem to be trade-offs between conceptual depth and empirical scope or precision. The review highlights that, to advance comparative and cumulative knowledge in future family policy research, further refinement is needed – alongside broader geographical coverage – in defining ‘policy change’ and the processes and dimensions it entails, as well as in strengthening the links between conceptual clarity, operationalisation, and measurement.