A GIS-based AHP approach integrating geospatial and magnetic data for groundwater potential mapping in a structurally complex arid region, Egypt

Groundwater exploration in arid regions of the Eastern Desert of Egypt requires an integrated understanding of the structural, geomorphic, and subsurface controls governing recharge and storage. This study presents a GIS-based groundwater potentiality model for a structurally complex rift-related zone along the southern Esh El Mellaha Block, between the Gulf of Suez and northern Red Sea. Sixteen topographical, meteorological, hydrological, and surface geological factors were systematically integrated with particular magnetic basement-depth modeling and subsurface fault architecture, which were weighted using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Results demonstrate that regional tectonic configuration and structural geometry, rather than surface geomorphic factors alone, exert the primary control on groundwater distribution. High-potential zones are concentrated within major structural lows, including the Tarboul syncline, West Hurghada trough, and El Gouna fan system, where thick Quaternary deposits and enhanced infiltration prevail. The ENE-trending Bali Shear Zone acts as a key conduit for focused recharge by enhancing fracture permeability and linking the Gulf of Suez and Red Sea structural domains. Model validation yielded an AUC of 0.80, with balanced sensitivity and specificity (0.74), indicating reliable predictive performance. Single parameter sensitivity analysis confirms the robustness of the model and indicates that structural and geological factors exert the strongest control on groundwater potential distribution. The study emphasizes the role of structural architecture in groundwater assessment and supports future sustainable water-resource development in arid extensional tectonic settings.