Environmental pressure and sensory uncertainty modulate free-throw performance: psychological, neurophysiological, and kinematic evidence

Performance under competitive pressure depends on emotional and attentional regulation. This study examined how environmental pressure and sensory uncertainty influence perceived anxiety, probability of failure (POF), cost of failure (COF), and free-throw performance in basketball. Furthermore, shooting kinematics and prefrontal hemodynamics (estimated by prefrontal oxygenated haemoglobin concentration (OxyHb) were assessed to determine how these stressors modulate biomechanical and neurophysiological responses. Twenty-four federated basketball players (U14-U18) completed a 2 × 2 within-subject protocol (high/low pressure × sensory occlusion), performing 100 free throws per condition. In the meantime, anxiety, POF, COF, were registered every five shots, and performance was quantified at shot level. Linear mixed-effects models revealed that both stressors significantly increased anxiety, POF and COF (p < 0.001). POF and COF each independently predicted higher anxiety, which in turn negatively predicted free-throw performance. A mediation analysis confirmed that anxiety partially mediated the effect of POF on performance and fully mediated the effect of COF. Performance was lowest under combined stressors (36.46%) compared to no-occlusion conditions (~ 61%). Additionally, prior performance predicted subsequent performance, and anxiety independently reduced shooting accuracy when added to the model (p < 0.001). At the neurophysiological level, both pressure and occlusion elicited greater prefrontal oxygenation and altered joint kinematics. These results suggest that environmental pressure and sensory uncertainty may modulate psychological appraisals, neurophysiological responses, and movement kinematics offering a potential explanation for the observed decrement in free-throw performance. Therefore, simulating competitive pressure could improve emotional regulation and performance.