POPE: a software package for a reliable reconstruction of paleoseismicity

Abstract We present the first version of the software POPE (Probability of Occurrence of Paleoseismic Earthquakes, POPEv1.0), designed to assist seismologists in reconstructing the timing of paleoseismic earthquakes on a fault, based on event ages derived from multiple trenches along that fault. The main feature of POPEv1.0 is that it accounts for uncertainties in the input paleoseismic data (i.e. the paleoearthquake ages from trenches) and generates multiple fault rupture scenarios by applying a probabilistic aggregation method that also considers less likely, but plausible, ways of combining paleoseismological data from different trenches. Some of these scenarios may subsequently be excluded through an independent expert selection process, based on their consistency with available stratigraphic, structural and historical constraints. To show the use of POPEv1.0 and discuss the underlying methodology, we apply it to the paleoseismic data from two faults in Central Italy, the Ovindoli-Pezza and Monte Ocre faults, and discuss the implications of results for seismic hazard assessment in the region.