Elevated serum galectin‐3 levels predict the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in a Japanese general population: A 10‐year follow‐up study

ABSTRACT Aims/Introduction Although several studies have reported elevated serum galectin‐3 levels in type 2 diabetes mellitus, its association with type 2 diabetes mellitus, in Japan, where obesity is relatively uncommon, remains unclear. We investigated whether serum galectin‐3 levels can be a predictive marker for type 2 diabetes mellitus in a Japanese general population. Materials and methods A total of 433 participants who underwent a health check‐up in Nagasaki between 2013 and 2014 were enrolled; of these, 307 participants completed follow‐up by 2023. Participants were classified into quartiles based on serum galectin‐3 levels measured by a sandwich enzyme immunoassay, and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed. Results The serum galectin‐3 levels were associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus prevalence ( P = 0.002) in the regression analysis. Over the 10‐year follow‐up, the highest galectin‐3 quartile had a higher type 2 diabetes mellitus incidence than the lowest galectin‐3 quartile (adjusted odds ratio: 5.75; 95% confidence interval: 1.08–30.65). Subgroup analysis stratified by body mass index revealed that each 1‐standard deviation increase in serum galectin‐3 level was associated with a significantly increased risk of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus in the low body mass index group, but not in the high body mass index group. Conclusions The serum galectin‐3 levels were significantly associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus prevalence and incidence in a general Japanese population, particularly among individuals without obesity. Galectin‐3 may be a useful biomarker for identifying individuals at risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus.