Agricultural Vulnerability Assessment: Climate and Non‐Climate Interactions in Crop Production Systems

ABSTRACT Recent climate phenomena show that Spain is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change impacts, with varied regional effects from flash floods to drought. This study assesses the vulnerability of four major crops (cereal, rice, grape and olive) in Catalonia to climate change through a comprehensive vulnerability index incorporating exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity indicators. Using farm‐level panel data from 2012 to 2022, we employ a three‐stage analytical approach using a multi‐criteria vulnerability index, correlation analysis and dynamic panel estimation to examine the relationship between vulnerability and total factor productivity (TFP). Results reveal significant differences in vulnerability across crops and provinces, with olive showing the highest vulnerability followed by cereal, whereas grape demonstrates the lowest vulnerability. Lleida province exhibits the highest regional vulnerability, whereas Barcelona shows the lowest. Temperature‐related factors emerge as the dominant vulnerability drivers, with extreme temperature days and temperature variability followed by topographical limitations. System GMM estimation confirms a strong negative relationship between vulnerability and agricultural productivity, with long‐term impacts exceeding immediate effects. These findings provide a foundation for targeted adaptation strategies that address both climate exposure and adaptive capacity constraints, enabling policymakers to prioritise interventions based on crop‐specific vulnerability profiles and key driving factors.