A Pre-Registered Two-Layer Decision Framework for Gold Market Timing: Macro-Economic Ground Scores and IceCube Neutrino Event Silence Periods as Complementary Timing Indicators — An Exploratory Study

This paper presents a pre-registered, exploratory two-layer decision framework for gold (XAU/USD) market entry timing, integrating macro-economic ground scores with cosmic timing indicators derived from IceCube neutrino observatory data. The Ground Score Engine evaluates five macro-economic factors — technical price position, Federal Reserve policy environment, VIX fear index, US Dollar Index, and geopolitical risk — weighted to produce a composite score out of 100 points. The Cosmic Score Engine evaluates four timing indicators — KOKU silence accumulation, IceCube GOLD event detection, CSS Window proximity, and KOKU density events — also out of 100 points. Integrated formula: Total = Ground × 0.6 + Cosmic × 0.4. ENTRY ≥ 65, STANDBY ≥ 45. IceCube GOLD events function as a bonus indicator (+30 cosmic points), not a mandatory condition — correcting the v1.0/v2.0 design flaw. No causal relationship is claimed. The framework operates under the Ma Resonance Theory (common cause structure hypothesis). Pre-registered prediction for CSS Event Window (May 25–30, 2026) is recorded herein. Control experiment: Group A (ground-only) vs Group B (integrated), evaluated by Mann-Whitney U test, initiated May 25, 2026. Seven critical objections addressed with full intellectual honesty, including Wilson 95% CI = [29.0%, 96.3%] for N=7. Sensitivity analysis across weight ratios (50/50 to 80/20) and thresholds (60–75) confirms ENTRY robustness for today's configuration. This is exploratory. Target N=50.