Disarming Hezbollah: A Pathway to Sovereignty or a Recipe for Renewed Conflict?

In August 2025, a plan backed by the United States and Gulf countries was implemented against Hezbollah, which had established dominance in Lebanon with Iranian support. The aim was to re-establish Lebanon’s monopoly over its armed forces. In this study, the Layered Sovereignty Bargain (LSB) model was developed using examples such as the Provisional IRA, GAM in Aceh, FARC, Nepal’s Maoists, ETA, Colombia’s AUC, and RENAMO, and theories including DDR, credible commitment problems, spoiler dynamics, and the literature on hybrid armed actors and power-sharing. The model posits that the disarmament of a hybrid actor like Hezbollah is sustainable only if the political, institutional, security, economic, and regional dimensions are simultaneously addressed—with progress on each layer made conditional on progress across the others. As in many examples, the findings indicate that coercive or partial approaches risk a relapse into violence. On the other hand, an integrated framework that combines the essential elements of contemporary DDR— credible guarantees, political participation, security sector integration, economic development, and the principle of noninterference— offers the greatest hope for success.