Global Trends in the Walnut Market and the Changing Competitiveness of Hungary

Abstract The global walnut market has undergone significant changes in recent years. New countries have emerged among the major producers, leading to a significant increase in production and intensified market competition. This study presents international trends in the walnut market. Hungary’s position is analyzed using the Herfindahl–Hirschman index (HHI) and revealed comparative advantage (RCA), supported by cost-benefit and investment efficiency analyses. The results show that the international walnut market has become increasingly diversified, while Hungary’s competitiveness has weakened significantly between 2013 and 2024. The revealed comparative advantage has fallen below 1 for both shelled and kernel products, indicating a loss of comparative advantage. According to cost-benefit analyses, traditional plantations (no irrigation, terminal bud-bearing cultivars) have become unprofitable due to low yields and poor quality. In contrast, intensive plantations (high density, irrigation, and lateral-bearing cultivars) show high profitability and return on investment, with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) reaching 6,400 EUR per hectare and an internal rate of return exceeding 16%. Research highlights that the key to improving the sector’s profitability lies in vertical integration and the development of postharvest processes (drying, sorting, packaging). Hungary’s future competitiveness depends on increasing the share of intensive plantations, enhancing productivity, and strengthening value-added walnut processing.