Housing expenditure pressure, gender preference and subsequent fertility intentions of young female migrants: evidence from China

This study explores the association of housing expenditure pressure and gender preferences with the subsequent fertility intentions of young migrant women. Research has shown that both housing expenditure pressure and gender preference are significantly negatively associated with the subsequent fertility intentions of young female migrants, and the negative correlation strength of gender preference is far stronger than that of housing pressure. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the negative correlation between housing pressure and subsequent fertility intentions is particularly prominent in specific groups, such as the younger, first marriage, intra-provincial mobility, and agricultural women with registered residence. However, regardless of the group, the negative correlation of gender preference is always significant and has the highest intensity. Mechanism analysis further reveals that gender preferences are associated with subsequent fertility intentions mainly through three potential pathways: cultural compliance, risk expectations, and social competition. In addition, in the sub sample analysis of one-child families, it was found that housing pressure is no longer significantly correlated with subsequent fertility intentions, but gender preference itself is significantly negatively associated with the subsequent fertility intentions of women who already have boys. From the dual perspectives of reducing housing pressure and transforming gender norms, this paper provides a policy basis for policies that may be associated with higher fertility intention among young female migrants.