Conditional interdependence: neo-imperial mechanisms and multinational enterprises in Trump II geostrategy

Purpose This study develops a mechanism-based account of neo-imperialism in contemporary US geostrategy under the Trump II administration. It argues that hierarchy is pursued through forms of conditional interdependence in which access to markets, infrastructures, technologies and strategic networks is made contingent on alignment, trusted-partner status and compliance. The study aims to examine how these mechanisms are articulated through firms and compliance architectures and what this implies for multinational corporations’ strategy, positioning and alignment choices, as well as for international business scholarship. Design/methodology/approach The study undertakes a qualitative content analysis of two central US policy documents: the 2025 National Security Strategy and the U.S. Department of State Agency Strategic Plan for 2026–2030. Using a five-part diagnostic framework, it analyses how the texts articulate regional primacy, conditional access, network leverage, technology and standards governance and corporate mobilisation, and how these mechanisms position firms as channels through which conditional interdependence is operationalised. Findings The analysis identifies a neo-imperial shift from managing geopolitical risk to governing cross-border economic activity through conditionality, infrastructural gatekeeping and ecosystem control. The documents articulate conditional interdependence, in which participation in markets, technologies, infrastructures and strategic networks is shaped by political and institutional conditions. Firms are positioned both as objects of discipline and redesign and as agents of implementation that reproduce hierarchy through standards, compliance, localisation, procurement and ecosystem alignment. Strategic choice for US and non-US firms is structured around recurring trade-offs between alignment and hedging, integration and duplication, and state-embedded and market-led expansion. Originality/value The study develops an account of infrastructural neo-imperialism organised through conditional interdependence, in which firms, networks and compliance architectures function as mechanisms for governing access, exclusion and alignment. It advances international business research by moving beyond exogenous geopolitical risk to explain how hierarchy is produced and reproduced through corporate organisation, network control and politically governed interdependence.