Development of 5-year risk prediction models for incident dementia and mortality in a community-dwelling older Japanese population: The Japan Prospective Studies Collaboration for Aging and Dementia (JPSC‐AD)
Improving cognitively healthy survival is important for achieving healthy aging. Therefore, it would be valuable to estimate the future risk of either incident dementia or death in community-dwelling older adults. This study aimed to develop a set of risk prediction models for either incident dementia or death that can be applied according to data availability across diverse clinical settings, using longitudinal data from community-dwelling older Japanese adults. A total of 8,334 participants aged ≥65 years were prospectively followed up from 2016 to 2023. Logistic regression was used to develop multivariable prediction models. The developed models were translated into simplified scoring systems based on the β coefficients. The discrimination abilities of the models were assessed by C-statistics, and the calibration was assessed by calibration plots. During the follow-up period, 1,151 participants developed either dementia or death. In the multivariable model using potential predictors commonly available in the primary care setting, age, male sex, formal education ≤9 years, diabetes mellitus, use of lipid-lowering agents, leanness, history of stroke, history of heart disease, history of respiratory disease, history of cancer, current smoking, no regular exercise habit, and low frequency of social interactions were selected as predictors. Adding cognitive status, depressive symptoms, apolipoprotein E-ε4 carrier status, and brain MRI markers to the model further enhanced its predictive performance. The developed models and simplified scores showed good discrimination and calibration. Risk stratification with our models may be useful for assessing the risks of incident dementia and death and, consequently, for prolonging cognitively healthy survival.
Authors
- Kazuo Iwasa (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1773-0619)
- Kaori Muto (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5286-4706)
- Izen Ri (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8598-5368)
- Ryo Shikimoto (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7410-3067)
- Yuta Yoshino (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0687-0301)
- Junji Komatsu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5150-6322)
- Hisanori Kowa (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3014-8068)
- Masafumi Kishi
- Yoshihiro Kokubo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0705-9449)
- Hisashi Kida (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7712-1105)
- Xiangyin Meng
- Yoshihiko Furuta (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2373-9636)
- Masato Akiyama (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1879-5476)
- Yasuo Terayama (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0703-4997)
- Hisashi Yonezawa
- Hidehito Niimura (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2124-5643)
- Ritsuko Hanajima
- Kaori Sawada (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3194-586X)
- Naoto Kajitani (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7245-9206)
- Tomoki Ozaki
- Ayumi Tachibana (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1664-7493)
- Shogyoku Bun (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0815-1431)
- Yasuyo Fukada
- Michiaki Kubo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0095-2322)
- Jun‐ichi Iga (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4409-3096)
- Takanori Honda (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1011-9879)
- Kazuhiro Uchida
- Junko Takahashi
- Midori Esaki
- Shintaro Yokoyama (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0000-8576-1260)
- Hiroshi Takigawa
- Masahito Yamada
- Koichi Murashita
- Moeko Noguchi-Shinohara
- Mamoru Hashimoto
- Tomohisa Ishikawa
- Yukihide Momozawa
- Chikashi Terao
- Hiroshi Akasaka
- Yasuyuki Taki
- On the behalf of the JPSC-AD study group
- Shigeyuki Nakaji
- Kenjiro Ono
- Naoki Ishizuka
- Mao Shibata
- Shu-ichi Ueno
- Jun Hata
- Minoru Takebayashi
- Masaru Mimura
- Toshiharu Ninomiya (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1345-9032)
- Tomoyuki Ohara
- Kenji Wada
- Manabu Ikeda
- Benjamin Thyreau
- Kenji Nakashima
- Hisako Yoshida
- Yusuke Inoue
- Yutaka Kiyohara
- Tatsuya Mikami
- Tetsuya Maeda
Institutions
- Kanazawa University (JP)
- Kyushu University (JP)
- Hirosaki University (JP)
- Kumamoto Health Science University (JP)
- Iwate Medical University (JP)
- Tohoku University (JP)
- Keio University (JP)
- Ehime University (JP)
- Tottori University (JP)
- Kumamoto University (JP)
Publication Details
- Journal
- GeroScience
- Published
- 2026-05-18
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s11357-026-02304-w
- Primary Topic
- Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development