Spatiotemporal patterns and underlying drivers of provincial agricultural green total factor productivity in China

Under tightening resource and environmental constraints, understanding the evolution and determinants of agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP) is essential for evaluating sustainable agricultural development. Using balanced panel data for 31 Chinese provinces from 2005 to 2024, this study measures AGTFP through a super-efficiency global SBM-Malmquist framework incorporating undesirable outputs. The geographic detector method is further employed to examine stage-specific spatial explanatory patterns across seven dimensions, including factor endowments, technological progress, rural governance, production organization, market environment, affluence, and ecological pressure. Results indicate that AGTFP exhibits a fluctuating but overall upward trajectory over the study period, with a noticeable acceleration after 2018. Persistent spatial disparities are observed, as eastern provinces maintain higher productivity levels, while central and western regions demonstrate gradual convergence in recent years. Decomposition analysis reveals that technological progress constitutes the principal source of long-term growth, whereas technical efficiency improvements contribute increasingly in the later stages. Spatial dependence remains relatively weak and varies across periods. The determinant structure shows a dynamic transition from early-stage dominance of ecological and factor constraints toward strengthened roles of efficiency, organizational restructuring, and market-related factors. Accordingly, to accelerate agricultural green transformation, policy efforts should prioritize optimizing the structure of agricultural factor supply, incentivizing green technological progress, enhancing the effectiveness of environmental regulation, and improving agricultural governance systems, with greater emphasis on region-specific and stage-differentiated policy coordination.