HOW GLOBAL GOLD PRICES INTERACT WITH MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES (1973–2025)?

Abstract This study examines the factors influencing gold prices within a comprehensive framework encompassing macroeconomic, financial, real, and geopolitical factors. By utilizing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the Unrestricted Error Correction Model (UECM), the analysis captures both short-term dynamics and long-term equilibrium relationships. Robustness of the findings is ensured through various methods such as bounds testing, Granger causality, impulse response functions, correlation analysis, and stability diagnostics. The results indicate that a complex interaction of multiple forces influences gold prices. Real factors, particularly inflation and global demand for gold, serve as the primary long-term drivers, while financial variables like interest rates and exchange rates have a negative impact. Additionally, geopolitical shocks further enhance gold's reputation as a safe-haven asset. In the short term, gold reacts quickly to shocks, but in the long run, it tends to converge towards a stable equilibrium. This study underscores gold’s significance as a systemic economic indicator and offers important implications for policymakers and investors regarding risk management and reserve diversification.