Iran's January 2026 Protests and the Role of Foreign Actors in a Transitioning World Order

This essay examines Iran’s January 2026 protests within the context of ongoing world-order transition and intensifying great-power competition. It argues that the protests should be understood neither as purely endogenous unrest nor as externally orchestrated regime-change operations, but as a case of indirect containment operating through domestic mediation. Drawing on neoclassical realism, securitisation theory, political warfare literature, and studies of hybrid and sharp power, the essay demonstrates how Iran’s structural vulnerabilities; including systemic corruption, oligarchic capture, governance incoherence, and declining legitimacy; interacted with external pressures in a contested international environment. Rather than producing instability directly, foreign actors exploited and amplified pre-existing domestic fractures while avoiding overt intervention. Simultaneously, Russia and China prioritised stability preservation without deep involvement in Iran’s internal political dynamics. The article argues that contemporary geopolitical rivalry increasingly operates through indirect mechanisms that exploit internal vulnerabilities in strategically important middle powers, particularly under conditions where direct intervention has become increasingly costly and risky.