Seed choices and economic outcomes: evidence from wheat farmers in Tanzania

Wheat is a strategic crop in Tanzania, yet production remains constrained by limited adoption of improved technologies, particularly certified seed, resulting in low yields far below potential. Using logit, latent class, and Propensity Score Matching models, and survey data from 450 wheat farmers and 64 wheat value chain actors, this study analyses the determinants of seed choice decisions and the economic impacts of certified wheat seed use. The study reveals significant heterogeneity among wheat farmers, with certified seed choice decisions varying sharply across socio-economic classes. Economies of scale and knowledge‑based factors, including awareness, access to extension services, and education, consistently shape seed choice decisions. The use of certified wheat seed is associated with substantial economic outcomes, with the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT) indicating a 59% increase in household income and a 21% rise in yield. Differentiated interventions in the policy space that reflect the heterogeneity of wheat farmers, leveraging economies of scale, and dismantling seed access barriers are essential to strengthen investment confidence, improve economic outcomes, and enhance sector productivity, thereby advancing Tanzania’s goal of wheat self‑sufficiency.