Study on the Causes, Development Process, Geological Principles and Future Evolution Trends of the Recent Earthquake Sequence in Indonesia

Since the strong earthquake in eastern Indonesia (Maluku Sea, Sulawesi, Java regions) in April 2026, continuous high-frequency seismic activities have occurred, accompanied by abnormal phenomena such as irreversible plastic slip of plates, vertical crustal uplift and seismic shallowing, which have broken the relatively stable geological activity rhythm of the region in the past 30 years. Based on the measured GPS data from Indonesia's INA-CORS internal network, the original seismic records from the background of BMKG (Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics), crustal deformation monitoring data and plate dynamics theory, this paper systematically analyzes the genetic mechanism, development rules and core geological principles of this earthquake sequence. Combined with the stress conduction law of the circum-Pacific plate and the historical evolution of regional geological structures, it predicts its short-term, medium-term and long-term evolution trends, and clarifies the potential impact of this earthquake sequence on the reconstruction of the global seismic pattern. The research shows that the fundamental driving force of this earthquake sequence comes from the accelerated northward subduction of the Australian Plate, and the core inducement is the structural fragmentation of the rigid hub between plates, which leads to the fracture of the regional stress conduction chain and the local concentrated release of tectonic energy. At present, the seismic activity has entered the accelerated stage of irreversible plastic slip, and there is a high risk of extremely large-scale inertial collapse main earthquake in the short term. In the medium term, it presents the characteristics of normalized high-frequency strong earthquakes and frequent geological disasters. In the long term, it will drive the slow northeastward drift of the Java block, leading to the permanent reconstruction of the regional geological pattern. The research results can provide important theoretical support andmeasured observation basis for the study of stress redistribution in the circum-Pacific seismic belt, the construction of regional geological disaster early warning system and the development of disaster prevention and mitigation work.