Impact of Sugarcane Production Participation on Household Food Security in Uganda

ABSTRACT The paper examines the impact of sugarcane production on household food security in Uganda. It is among the few studies in Uganda providing new empirical insights into household food security. Specifically, it demonstrates how cultivating sugarcane or not impacts household livelihood outcomes in communities where sugarcane is grown compared to households in the same regions that do not grow cane. The paper uses quantitative techniques (Poisson, ordered probit, PSM and IPW) on primary cross‐sectional survey data from 1771 farming households conducted in 2021 across three sugarcane‐growing subregions of Uganda—Bunyoro, Buganda and Busoga. The data were weighed; hence, the results are nationally representative. Findings reveal that the mean differences in Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS) score, Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS) and Months of Adequate Household Food Provisions (MAHFP) were −1.70, 0.63 and 1.21, respectively, between cane growers and non‐cane growers, all statistically significant at the 1% level. Poisson marginal estimates showed that HFIAS significantly decreased (−1.219) among cane growers relative to non‐cane growers. Analysis using the ordered Poisson indicates that the age of the household head, maximum adult female education, location, wages/salaries, shocks (such as death of a household member and crop pests and diseases), household asset values and the number of food crops all had positive and significant effects on food security, depending on the proxy measure. The PSM and IPW analyses reveal that the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) of cane production on HDDS is statistically significant and negative (−0.33), suggesting a reduction in HDDS for cane growers. The PSM (1:1) (Average Treatment Effect) indicates that if a non‐cane grower chose to cultivate cane, their food insecurity would decrease by approximately 0.836 (HFIAS). Their months of food provision would increase by nearly half a month. Therefore, policies related to sugarcane should ensure that farmers receive timely payments from selling cane to the mill and offer stable prices to help smooth food consumption beyond their own production.