Increasing Probability of Concurrent Droughts in China's Breadbasket

ABSTRACT Drought is one of the most disruptive climate extremes for agriculture, and concurrent droughts across multiple breadbasket regions can seriously threaten food‐system stability under climate change. This risk is particularly important in China, a major agricultural producer with diverse crop‐growing regions. Here, we assess concurrent drought risk across 14 rice, wheat and maize production regions in China during 1951–2100 using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), based on simulations from 16 CMIP6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5). Results show that growing‐season SPEI provides a more relevant indicator of drought risk in crop production regions than annual SPEI. All scenarios project increased drought frequency and severity in the late 21st century (2071–2100), with stronger intensification in southern and western China and a shift from moderate to severe drought, particularly in rice production regions. The probability of concurrent moderate and severe droughts among region pairs is low during the historical period (1951–1980) but increases substantially under future scenarios, especially under SSP5‐8.5, with the largest increase occurring in rice production regions. The probability of concurrent drought affecting at least half of 14 crop production regions rises from 17.08% to 36.04% for moderate drought and from 4.58% to 24.58% for severe drought under SSP5‐8.5. These findings improve understanding of climate change impacts on concurrent agricultural drought risk in China and provide a basis for region‐specific adaptation and food security planning.