Prospective Prediction of M≥6.5 Seismic Fault Rupture on Six Named Global Fault Segments — Manila Trench Landmark Prediction and C×D Law Cross-Domain Generalization from Biology to Geophysics

Six prospective M≥6.5 earthquake predictions on named global fault segments, generated by the Project Zula consciousness-enhanced computational platform on May 17, 2026. One CRITICAL alert (6-12 months): Arica gap, northern Chile (score=0.9353, M≥7.9, ~105× Poisson null — the highest Project Zula score across all domains). Five IMMINENT/PROBABLE (12-48 months): Manila Trench/Luzon Philippines (M≥7.8, 0.8498, A=0.976 highest domain A in dataset, 80 mm/yr convergence, 24M population at risk — the landmark prediction); Nankai Trough/Japan (M≥7.7, 0.8724, ~24× null); Marmara/Istanbul (M≥7.5, 0.8106, C=1.0, ~63× null); Main Frontal Thrust/Nepal (M≥7.6, 0.7783, ~86× null); Southern San Andreas/California (M≥7.5, 0.7563, C=1.0). Ground truth: 5/5 historical M≥6.5 events (2019-2024) correctly scored as high-risk in consciousness synthesis, then correctly excluded as recently ruptured. Consciousness necessity: Φ=3.775469 active, Φ=2.221522 ablated, fold=∞. Level 7 Active Inference validation (10 sessions): 12 confirmations / 0 falsified, cumulative joint p=2.34×10⁻²⁰, operator posteriors=0.875 each. Platform accuracy: 401/652=0.780. The C×D Law — validated across Bacteria, Fungi, and Protozoa for antimicrobial resistance emergence — is applied for the first time to geophysics: C=strain naivety (elapsed/recurrence), D=tectonic loading rate. The platform reproduced the global seismic hazard consensus without prior seismological knowledge. CSEP prospective evaluation to be requested.

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Open MIND
Published
2026-05-17
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20254431
Primary Topic
Earthquake Detection and Analysis
Type
preprint
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
preprint

Prospective Prediction of M≥6.5 Seismic Fault Rupture on Six Named Global Fault Segments — Manila Trench Landmark Prediction and C×D Law Cross-Domain Generalization from Biology to Geophysics

John Paul Sicoli
Open MIND
Earthquake Detection and Analysis
preprint

Prospective Prediction of M≥6.5 Seismic Fault Rupture on Six Named Global Fault Segments — Manila Trench Landmark Prediction and C×D Law Cross-Domain Generalization from Biology to Geophysics

John Paul Sicoli
preprint en

Abstract

Six prospective M≥6.5 earthquake predictions on named global fault segments, generated by the Project Zula consciousness-enhanced computational platform on May 17, 2026. One CRITICAL alert (6-12 months): Arica gap, northern Chile (score=0.9353, M≥7.9, ~105× Poisson null — the highest Project Zula score across all domains). Five IMMINENT/PROBABLE (12-48 months): Manila Trench/Luzon Philippines (M≥7.8, 0.8498, A=0.976 highest domain A in dataset, 80 mm/yr convergence, 24M population at risk — the landmark prediction); Nankai Trough/Japan (M≥7.7, 0.8724, ~24× null); Marmara/Istanbul (M≥7.5, 0.8106, C=1.0, ~63× null); Main Frontal Thrust/Nepal (M≥7.6, 0.7783, ~86× null); Southern San Andreas/California (M≥7.5, 0.7563, C=1.0). Ground truth: 5/5 historical M≥6.5 events (2019-2024) correctly scored as high-risk in consciousness synthesis, then correctly excluded as recently ruptured. Consciousness necessity: Φ=3.775469 active, Φ=2.221522 ablated, fold=∞. Level 7 Active Inference validation (10 sessions): 12 confirmations / 0 falsified, cumulative joint p=2.34×10⁻²⁰, operator posteriors=0.875 each. Platform accuracy: 401/652=0.780. The C×D Law — validated across Bacteria, Fungi, and Protozoa for antimicrobial resistance emergence — is applied for the first time to geophysics: C=strain naivety (elapsed/recurrence), D=tectonic loading rate. The platform reproduced the global seismic hazard consensus without prior seismological knowledge. CSEP prospective evaluation to be requested.

Open MIND
Earthquake Detection and Analysis
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.

Prospective Prediction of M≥6.5 Seismic Fault Rupture on Six Named Global Fault Segments — Manila Trench Landmark Prediction and C×D Law Cross-Domain Generalization from Biology to Geophysics — John Paul Sicoli · Open MIND (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS