Simulating past and future refugia for temperate trees in northern Italy

During the Quaternary, trees responded to the climatic changes of glacial–interglacial cycles with large‐scale range shifts. Over cold glacials, temperate tree species contracted their ranges and survived in areas known as refugia. Several studies point to the Euganean Hills (Colli Euganei), in Veneto, northern Italy, as one of the northernmost European refugia of temperate tree species during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca 23 000–19 000 calibrated years BP). Using LandClim, a spatially explicit, dynamic forest landscape model, we demonstrate that climate conditions during the LGM likely allowed temperate tree species to persist in the Euganean Hills. The identified refugial locations lie at intermediate to high elevations and in sheltered valleys within the hilly complex. Therefore, the combined palaeoecological and modelling evidence suggests that today's temperate forests of the Euganean Hills have a full glacial legacy. Simulations under future climate conditions suggest a collapse of the sub‐mediterranean and oro‐mediterranean deciduous forests that are prevalent today and the expansion of thermo‐mediterranean evergreen forests (with e.g. Quercus ilex , Q. suber , Olea europaea and Pinus sp.). Specifically, the extrazonal population of oro‐mediterranean Fagus sylvatica , which is unique to the Po Plain and likely persisted locally through several glacial–interglacial cycles, is predicted to sharply decline and face local extinction, underscoring a conservation hazard.