Subsidence more than doubles sea-level rise today along densely populated coasts
Despite its strong influence on relative sea-level (RSL) rise, there is still low confidence in estimates of vertical land motion (VLM) and its contribution to RSL change. To address this problem, we synergize diverse VLM data, which now cover almost 65% of the coastal population, and are key to resolve small scale subsidence, including East, South, and Southeast Asian cities and populated deltaic regions, largely not covered by earlier geodetic measurements. We find that the average modern (1995-2020) global RSL rise experienced by coastal populations (6 mm/year) is about twice the climate-driven absolute sea-level rise. This reflects a strong tendency for higher rates of subsidence in densely populated areas, with 71% of the global coastal population living in subsiding regions. Paired with community efforts to extend consistent observations, these data are essential to ensure reliable estimates of present and future RSL rise to support risk and adaptation assessment.
Authors
- Denise Dettmering (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8940-4639)
- Benjamin P. Horton (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9245-3768)
- Marta Marcos (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9975-5013)
- Florian Seitz (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0718-6069)
- Laura Sánchez (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3885-0436)
- Leonard Ohenhen
- Daniel Lincke (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4250-5077)
- Robert J. Nicholls (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9715-1109)
- Julius Oelsmann (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3950-0881)
- Jochen Hinkel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7590-992X)
- Manoochehr Shirzaei (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0086-3722)
Institutions
- University of East Anglia (GB)
- Tulane University (US)
- Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (ES)
- City University of Hong Kong (HK)
- University of California, Irvine (US)
- Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin (DE)
- Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies (ES)
- Global Climate Forum (DE)
- United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment, and Health (CA)
- Tyndall Centre (GB)
- University of Southampton (GB)
- Technical University of Munich (DE)
- Virginia Tech (US)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2026-05-16
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-72293-z
- Primary Topic
- Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
- City University of Hong Kong
- European Commission
- HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme
- Agencia Estatal de Investigación