Compensatory Gaokao admissions, academic performance, and graduate destinations: an empirical study in Henan Province, China

The Three Special Enrollment Programs (TSEP) of China, which are National (NSP), University (SPU) and Local (LSP) programs, are designed to increase access to quality higher education among rural and low-income students. This paper will be based on the relationship between TSEP participation, academic performance, and early post-graduation destinations using data on 3226 graduates of seven universities in Henan Province. We compare scores of Gaokao and cumulative GPA between policy groups and approximate multinomial logistic models of employment outcomes, with the mediation of GPA. Findings demonstrate that there are not very big differences in the Gaokao score and academic performance of urban and rural students at the institutional tier. TSEP impacts are not uniform across levels: TSEP students in Double First-Class Universities have better GPAs than non-TSEP students with similar initial scores, and at local institutions, initial impacts among TSEP students are drawn to similar GPAs. TSEP students are more inclined to continue with their studies and less inclined to work right after graduation compared to other students who are not in TSEP. The mediation analysis shows that TSEP positively indirectly affects employment, through the enhancement of GPA, and negatively directly. On the whole, TSEP seems to achieve positive academic performance, although it is less effective in terms of providing equitable outcomes in the labor-market, which is why the policy should be supported by the levels in terms of tiers.