A speed-oriented phenotype is beneficial for 1500 m rowing at the Los Angeles 2028 Olympic Games

Abstract Purpose The shorter rowing course at the Los Angeles 2028 Olympics, which is 1500 m instead of 2000 m, potentially alters the physiological demands of racing. This study aims to elucidate whether the shortened distance favours rowers with a more speed-oriented phenotype, using two non-invasive profiling approaches: locomotor profiling and force-velocity (F-v) profiling. Methods Nine nationally competitive male rowers completed 2000 m and 1500 m rowing ergometer time trials. Peak power tests and graded exercise tests were used to determine the athletes’ locomotor profiles expressed as Power Reserve Ratio (PRR) and loaded back squat testing was performed to establish individual F-v profiles. Relative performance was expressed as the ratio between mean power output of the 1500 m and 2000 m time trials (MPO ratio ). Results PRR showed a strong positive correlation with MPO ratio ( r = 0.61), indicating that athletes with a more speed-oriented locomotor profile performed relatively better over the shorter distance. F-v slope demonstrated a moderate positive correlation with MPO ratio ( r = 0.36), which became very strong after excluding an outlier ( r = 0.88). Conclusion Together, these findings support the notion that the shortened Olympic rowing distance places greater emphasis on speed -ability, a challenge that suits athletes leaning towards a more speed-oriented phenotype. While aerobic capacity remains essential in 1500 m rowing, subtle adjustments in athlete selection and training toward increased anaerobic and explosive qualities may optimize performance at the Los Angeles 2028 Olympics.