The predictive role of implicit brand equity measures across decision contexts

Abstract This study examines the predictive validity of implicit evaluative brand association measures in real market outcomes and the boundary conditions of their effectiveness. Drawing on dual-process theories, we focus on the Implicit Association Test (IAT) as a tool for capturing subconscious brand associations. The research questions ask whether IAT-based brand image scores can predict actual market share and how this relationship might vary with key product category characteristics, specifically, consumers’ consideration set size and purchase frequency. We conducted a large-scale survey of toothpaste brands measuring implicit brand associations via the IAT and linked these scores to each brand’s market share data. Hierarchical regression analysis showed that implicit brand image significantly predicts market share in the product category. Moreover, the IAT’s predictive validity was stronger when the consumer’s consideration set was small, consistent with intuitive decision-making playing a greater role under low choice complexity. However, the expected moderation by purchase frequency was not supported, frequent, habitual purchasing did not further amplify the IAT–share link. Overall, the findings demonstrate that implicit measures can enrich brand equity assessment by capturing hidden drivers of brand preference that translate into market performance, especially in low-complexity choice contexts.