From intelligent drive to green symbiosis: The pathway of AI pilot zone policy in fostering urban inclusive green growth

Artificial intelligence functions as a vital catalyst for urban green and sustainable development. Utilizing a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) methodology, this study examines the effects of the National New Generation Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Development Pilot Zone policy on urban inclusive green growth. Results indicate that this policy significantly promotes urban inclusive green growth by stimulating green production, green innovation, and employment creation. Additionally, dose-effect analysis reveals that a U-shaped relationship exists between policy intensity and effects, while quantile regressions show that the impact peaks in cities with a moderate level of inclusive green growth. Causal forest and SHAP analyses further identify that investment in education and technology are primary drivers of policy heterogeneity. Sub-index regressions suggest this policy has positive effects on economic development, distributive equity, and welfare sharing, though the influence on pollution reduction is not yet significant. Spatial analysis reveals that beneficial spillovers primarily occur within a 50-km radius. Moreover, AI and the digital economy synergistically promote inclusive green growth, but this impact becomes fully evident only when urban digital economy development level exceeds a specific threshold. • AI pilot zone policy promotes inclusive green growth via green production, green innovation, and employment creation. • Policy effects follow a U-shape with intensity, peaking in moderate inclusive green growth cities. • Causal forest and SHAP analyses identify investment in education and technology as drivers of policy heterogeneity. • Positive spillover effects are spatially bounded, occurring primarily within a 50-km radius. • AI pilot zone policy synergy with digital economy unlocks only past a critical digital development threshold.